Early Insights for New York's Distressed CRE Forum, Sept 19
Jimmy Lam
Managing Director, Investments
Beyond Global Management
Jimmy leads the Beyond real estate investment team and brings more than 15 years of experience in sourcing, deal structuring, acquisitions, and debt investments. In his previous position at Kirkwood Haven from 2018 to 2022, Mr. Lam was involved in acquisitions and asset management and was key to growing the firm’s real estate debt investment portfolio and developing the company’s market strategy. In addition to his role overseeing acquisitions and asset management, he was also responsible for the firm’s investor relations. During his tenure, he oversaw the firm’s hotel division operations and was pivotal in developing a highly successful investment strategy including sourcing, structuring, and financing multi-family and hospitality industry acquisitions. During his tenure at Hines Global Income Trust from 2013 to 2018, he was involved in all aspects of real estate investments, financing, economic research, and asset management for the firm’s European Private Equity Fund. He also served on the investment team for Hines REIT and other public Hines vehicles, and led exploratory efforts to start new funds and find new markets for investments. He holds a bachelor’s degree from the University of Houston.
How do you see the election results in November impacting CRE and the wider economy?
The 2024 election, particularly a contest between Trump and Harris, could have significant implications for commercial real estate (CRE) and the broader economy. A Trump victory might signal a continuation of deregulatory policies, potentially encouraging real estate development and investment. His focus on tax cuts could also benefit certain sectors within CRE, though it might increase national debt, potentially leading to higher interest rates down the line. On the other hand, if Harris wins, we might see a shift towards more progressive policies, including higher corporate taxes and increased regulation, which could impact business expansion and CRE demand. Additionally, her administration might focus on infrastructure and affordable housing, presenting opportunities in those areas.
What does today’s workout environment look like, in general?
The current workout environment is highly nuanced, with lenders and borrowers navigating complex negotiations. Lenders are more cautious, preferring to restructure rather than foreclose due to the uncertain market recovery timelines. Workouts today involve a mix of loan modifications, forbearance, and in some cases, converting debt to equity. There's also a strong emphasis on understanding the underlying asset's long-term viability, which means more comprehensive due diligence is being conducted to assess whether these assets can bounce back post-recovery.
Which asset classes and geographies are you currently watching most closely for attractive distressed opportunities?
I'm closely monitoring the retail, apartment, and senior living sectors. Retail, particularly in areas with changing consumer behavior post-pandemic, presents significant opportunities, especially for properties that can be repositioned or redeveloped. Apartments in overbuilt markets or those facing rent control pressures are also on our radar. Senior living facilities, especially those impacted by operational challenges during the pandemic, offer potential for turnaround with the right management. However, our bigger focus is on identifying properties in prime locations that are facing liquidity issues or have been operationally mismanaged, where there’s a very motivated seller or borrower. These situations often provide the most compelling distressed opportunities, as they allow us to acquire high-quality assets at a discount and unlock value through strategic improvements.
How are you assessing valuations in the current market?
Valuations in today’s market require a blend of traditional approaches and more forward-looking adjustments. We’re factoring in not just the current cash flow but also potential changes in demand driven by shifts in how people live and work post-pandemic. Additionally, given the rising interest rate environment, we are incorporating higher discount rates and being conservative in our exit cap rate assumptions. Stress testing scenarios for different economic outcomes is also a key part of the valuation process right now.
Tell us about an intriguing recent distressed opportunity you looked at.
A very common scenario we’re seeing in the market involves loans coming due with current lenders eager to exit their positions. This situation puts significant pressure on borrowers to quickly find alternative capital sources to replace the outgoing lender. Interestingly, the asset itself might not be distressed—often, it’s a well-performing property. However, the lack of liquidity in the market creates a challenging environment for the borrower, which allows us to be highly selective in the deals we pursue and to charge a premium for stepping in. These types of opportunities have become our bread and butter; we see them frequently, and they allow us to secure quality assets under favorable terms while addressing the borrower’s immediate need for liquidity.
What does financing availability look like for distress?
Financing for distressed assets is available but comes with tighter scrutiny and higher costs. Lenders are more selective, often requiring higher equity contributions or offering lower loan-to-value ratios. However, there’s a growing pool of capital, particularly from private equity and opportunistic funds, targeting distressed assets. These players are willing to provide bridge financing or mezzanine debt, often at a premium, to capitalize on the anticipated recovery and repositioning of these assets.
Ember Erickson
Co-Founder, COO
Biproxi Capital Network
How do you see the election results in November impacting CRE and the wider economy?
This is a tricky thing to say for sure. The optimistic side of me wants to believe there will be more public/private partnerships to address things like housing shortages and affordability- tax credits and zoning policies that make it possible for developers to feasibly revitalize and repurpose CBDs, etc. The pessimist in me thinks there may be some knee jerk tax policies that - while well meaning - don't help the issues at hand. If you look at what's happened at the local level in places like LA and San Francisco, the transfer tax is killing deals.
What does today’s workout environment look like, in general?
TBD
Which asset classes and geographies are you currently watching most closely for attractive distressed opportunities?
Office notwithstanding, there seems to be a lot of focus on the mountain west and the midwest across retail and hospitality.
How are you assessing valuations in the current market?
We have a unique perspective on how valuations play out - it doesn't feel like valuations have reset entirely. I know the powers that be have "called the bottom", but we're just not seeing that.
Tell us about an intriguing recent distressed opportunity you looked at.
TBD
What does financing availability look like for distress?
It's out there with the right plan and the right team. We're seeing a lot more personal guarantees on that front than we've ever seen.
Alex Horn
Managing Partner
BridgeInvest
What does financing availability look like for distress?
With over $929 billion in commercial real estate (CRE) loans maturing in 2024—a 41% increase from 2023—there is a significant rise in financing needs. Many loans that were scheduled to mature last year have been extended into 2024, with borrowers anticipating potential rate cuts. This impending "wall of debt" has heightened the capital needs among borrowers facing loan maturities. Due to declining valuations, borrowers seeking to refinance their existing loans often face substantial gaps in their capital stacks. As a result, they are increasingly turning to creatively structured financing solutions, often combining senior loans with mezzanine debt or preferred equity to bridge these gaps. We see an opportunity to invest in the distressed space by providing capital to fill these equity gaps, provided the loan is secured by a high-quality asset.
Steven Jason
Managing Principal
EOS Real Estate & Financial Advisory
How do you see the election results in November impacting CRE and the wider economy?
I actually think that a Republican victory might lead to more inflation with tax cuts and adding more to the budget deficit. But quite frankly, at this point, it’s a crap shoot and no way to really tell.
What does today’s workout environment look like, in general?
Not the order of magnitude or velocity that anyone expected by this point. Also think that with the pending election, there is more uncertainty. Uncertainty drives risk aversion and roadblocks to transact. Lack of velocity at this point rests with banks and debt platforms who are just not ready to fully recognize losses and transact - I will speak to this on the panel - and why!
Which asset classes and geographies are you currently watching most closely for attractive distressed opportunities?
Office nationwide (non-Class A), same for multifamily. For different reasons - obsolescence and WFH for office. Multifamily just needs basis reset and reset of capital stack as, long term, still a good investment but maybe not as opportunistic as it once was.
How are you assessing valuations in the current market?
Asset by asset, sub-market by sub-market. Need to be very granular.
Tell us about an intriguing recent distressed opportunity you looked at.
All I can tell you is that while the building showed in the 90% occupancy range, when you looked at the actual lease stacking plan (CBD office building), leases for a large number of spaces were showing as available as tenants had already notified ownership that they were going to vacate or downsize. But building was in 90%+ occupancy range now.
What does financing availability look like for distress?
Plentiful and waiting - just not seeing value proposition yet (aside from headliners of course) - "there isn't there yet".
Twinkle Roy
Economist
Moody's Analytics
How do you see the election results in November impacting CRE and the wider economy?
The 2024 presidential election is expected to have a delayed impact on the commercial real estate (CRE) sector. While elections generally introduce a degree of uncertainty, the current market dynamics-particularly inflation, interest rates, and maturing mortgages—are likely to have a more immediate effect on the sector. Investors are more focused on economic indicators such as inflation and interest rate movements, which are seen as more critical to market performance than election results. Any significant impact on CRE from the election is not expected until at least the second half of 2025.
What does today’s workout environment look like, in general?
The workout environment in 2024 is complex, with many CRE investors and lenders navigating higher interest rates, inflationary pressures, and a slow economic recovery. Distressed asset sales and restructurings are more common as borrowers face difficulties in refinancing and meeting debt obligations. Lenders are increasingly focused on mitigating losses, which may involve negotiating with borrowers for loan modifications or accepting deed-in-lieu arrangements.
Which asset classes and geographies are you currently watching most closely for attractive distressed opportunities?
Multifamily and office spaces in urban areas, particularly in markets hit hard by post-pandemic shifts, are currently attracting attention for distressed opportunities. Some secondary markets, where demand has declined or where overbuilding occurred, are also being closely watched. Geographically, areas experiencing slow job growth or population declines may present attractive distressed assets and only demand for “flight to quality” assets persist.
How are you assessing valuations in the current market?
Valuations in the current market are complex and heavily influenced by higher interest rates and the uncertain economic outlook. Investors are increasingly relying on conservative cash flow models, focusing on assets with stable income and good tenant credit. The market is seeing a correction in asset prices, especially for properties that were over-leveraged during the low-interest-rate period
Tell us about an intriguing recent distressed opportunity you looked at.
Office spaces, especially in urban areas, and some retail properties are under significant stress due to shifts in work patterns and consumer behavior. Investors are closely watching these sectors for distressed opportunities, particularly in markets that were overbuilt or have experienced slow recoveries post-pandemic. Secondary markets with slower job growth or population declines are also being monitored
What does financing availability look like for distress?
Financing for distressed assets is available but comes with tighter underwriting standards and higher costs. Traditional lenders are cautious, preferring to work with long-term clients with solid track records. As a result, alternative lenders such as private equity and debt funds are stepping in, often at higher interest rates and with more stringent terms. This environment favors investors with strong relationships and access to capital
Daniel Siegel
Principal & President, CRE
Peachtree Group
How do you see the election results in November impacting CRE and the wider economy?
Looking to the broader economy, if you review the S&P over the past 90 years or so – growth can’t really be attributed to a single party’s control of the presidency or congress.
As it relates to real estate, we know our problems and I don’t see a lot that the election will do alleviate those issues. There is a glut of product that was purchased from 2020-2022 at cap rates that are no longer representative of what current buyers find appealing. Or to simplify the issue, terminal value is down. Price discovery will continue for as long as the debt providers remain patient with sponsors in hopes of recapturing some of that value as interest rates fall – however if you look at historical precedent its unlikely to see significant value recovery before 2026 at the earliest.
The other main issue facing CRE is consumers re-evaluating how they interact with real estate and the actual utility of previous industry standards such as office and retail. Those are macro level issues that I would not expect to be meaningful impacted by the election. I would say that the idea of tariffs in the face of what still has been rather high construction costs does not excite me.
What does today’s workout environment look like, in general?
It’s rather strange because in many cases the properties are leased and operating in line with historical performance. However, you have this problem with terminal value and in some cases debt service/negative leverage on many of the assets purchased between 2020 and 2022. I say it’s strange because asset management during the GFC you were dealing with properties that were abandoned or borrowers potentially redirecting cash flow – not dealing with those types of issues. The environment is riddled with borrowers who are equivocal on their commitment to the asset and their determination as to whether they are in or out of the money swings on the latest FED meeting minutes.
Which asset classes and geographies are you currently watching most closely for attractive distressed opportunities?
The sunbelt cities that have seen such significant multi delivery over the past 12-18 months. I am super interested to see how absorption keeps up and I anticipate it not being as problematic from an overall occupancy standpoint as some have worried.
Andreas Vlahakis
Senior Vice President, Capital Markets,
Thor Equities
Andreas Vlahakis is the Senior Vice President of Capital Markets at Thor Equities leading the firm’s capital raising efforts globally. Thor currently has $20B of assets under management in the United States, Europe, and Latin America. Mr. Vlahakis is responsible for the placement of equity for commercial real estate transactions in addition to expanding and managing Thor Equities’ partner relationships. He covers all asset classes and is involved in the global growth of the firm geographically and within niche asset classes forming new joint ventures and separate accounts. Mr. Vlahakis was previously the head of acquisitions and asset management for US Property Trust, a Los Angeles based private equity firm. Prior to that, Mr. Vlahakis worked across real estate private equity firms and brokerages in acquisition and capital raising roles. He attended Pepperdine University for his bachelor’s degree in International Business and returned to Pepperdine Graziadio Business School for his Master of Science in Real Estate Investment & Finance graduating the top of his class.
How do you see the election results in November impacting CRE and the wider economy?
Typically we focus on politics as one of the major factors informing commercial real estate decisions. That being said, there are factors that carry more weight such as the FED’s decisions on interest rates that will have a much bigger impact on commercial real estate. We are not putting much value and decision making into Harris vs Trump.
Which asset classes and geographies are you currently watching most closely for attractive distressed opportunities?
Multifamily is where we are spending the most time. While the top 3 asset classes for us and most investors have been industrial, data centers, and multifamily over the last few years within that multifamily is the only asset class that is not only a top choice but also seeing distress in the capital stack. This creates opportunities to buy buildings below replacement cost and finding strong value. Geographically speaking, we are seeing a lot of pain in the Sun Belt and currently buying in the North East while waiting for the Sun Belt to bottom out as we see more pain on the horizon.
How are you assessing valuations in the current market?
Need to look at untrended yields and assume no rent growth while also baking in expense escalation. Deals that only work with rent growth assumptions we are steering away from.
Tell us about an intriguing recent distressed opportunity you looked at.
We bought an industrial deal for $35M at bankruptcy that was previously being bid around $65M. This was a deal that was timed poorly by the seller right when capital markets when haywire. It then went into bankruptcy 6 months later and we were able to pick it up for half the price.
What does financing availability look like for distress?
There is a lot of financing for distress but you have to pay up on rate and there are a lot of teeth on these loans. Large interest rate reserves and carry reserves as well as tails on carry and lenders not giving tender rights in some cases.
Kevin Tatro
Head of Credit Solutions
Woodbridge Investments
How do you see the election results in November impacting CRE and the wider economy?
Not all that relevant. Existing forces have a much greater impact.
What does today’s workout environment look like, in general?
Extend and pretend remains the course for most. Alternate facts. Fake it till you make it.
Which asset classes and geographies are you currently watching most closely for attractive distressed opportunities?
A lot of multi and office will be trading ownership. Any asset sthat have floating rate debt are in trouble. Mature markets with strong demographics remain more attractive.
How are you assessing valuations in the current market?
Appraisers are always 18 months behind and their valuations are not that relevant. For somewhat stabilized properties assume a cap rate 100 to 300 bsis points above lending rates and there is the valuation capped on in place NOI. Some adjustments to be made for vacancy. rollover or other non-stabilized factors. Not looking at past cap rates or assumptions of fed rate drops.
Tell us about an intriguing recent distressed opportunity you looked at.
Almost everything we are looking at has unreasonable equity expectations. Bank owned assets or those on foreclosure have much more reasonable pricing expectations.
What does financing availability look like for distress?
Depends on what you call distress. Collateral distress is almost unfinanceable. Existing owner distress is not really relevant, and financing is available for properties with reasonable performance. Mezz and rescue capital are priced unreasonably and anyone taking it likely has a worse situation than they are telling the lender.
Register Me for the Forum: The Distressed CRE Forum (East), September 19 in New York City.